Portugal and Immigration: Notification of 18,000 Immigrants and Implications for Brazilians
Introduction
On May 3, 2025, Portugal’s caretaker government announced plans to notify approximately 18,000 undocumented immigrants, including an unspecified number of Brazilians, to leave the country voluntarily within 20 days or face coercive deportation. This decision, led by the center-right Aliança Democrática (AD) government under Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, comes ahead of a snap general election scheduled for May 18, 2025, following a political crisis triggered by a failed confidence vote. The move reflects a broader shift toward stricter immigration policies in Portugal, a country historically seen as welcoming to migrants. This article examines the context of the announcement, the details of the deportation plan, its impact on Brazilian immigrants, and the broader implications for Portugal’s immigration system, drawing on recent developments and public sentiment.
Context of the Immigration Policy Shift
Portugal’s Immigration History
Portugal transitioned from a country of emigration to one of immigration in the 1980s, initially receiving citizens from former colonies like Brazil, Angola, and Cape Verde, followed by migrants from Eastern Europe and Asia. By 2021, Portugal had one of the EU’s most positive migration balances, with 698,887 residence permit holders and a growing foreign population. The country’s relatively open policies, including the Golden Visa and D7 Visa programs, have attracted diverse groups, particularly from Brazil, due to shared language and historical ties. However, the 2008 economic crisis and recent administrative backlogs have strained the immigration system, leading to delays in visa processing and public debates about integration.
Political Crisis and Election
The announcement coincides with a period of political instability. The AD government, in power since March 2024, lost a confidence vote in April 2025, prompting early elections. The far-right Chega party, which surged to third place in the 2024 election, has fueled anti-immigrant sentiment, pushing for stricter policies. Minister of the Presidency António Leitão Amaro has criticized Portugal’s deportation system as ineffective, noting that it executes fewer deportations than most European countries. The notification of 18,000 immigrants is framed as a move to “bring justice to those who comply with rules” and ensure “social tranquility,” aligning with AD’s campaign to retain power by appealing to voters concerned about immigration.
Administrative Challenges
Portugal’s immigration agency, AIMA (Agency for Integration, Migration, and Asylum), which replaced the SEF (Foreigners and Borders Service) in October 2023, faces a backlog of over 400,000 pending visa and residence permit applications. Delays, particularly in high-demand consulates like São Paulo, have left many immigrants in limbo, with processing times exceeding 200 days. Family reunification applications are on hold, and renewal processes are limited to online submissions for expired permits. To address this, the government has extended the validity of all immigration documents until June 2025 and launched a “mega-operation” with 300 personnel to clear the backlog by summer 2025.
Details of the Deportation Plan
Notification and Voluntary Departure
Starting the week of May 5, 2025, AIMA will issue approximately 4,500 initial notifications to undocumented immigrants, giving them 20 days to leave voluntarily. The remaining 13,500 notifications will follow, targeting a total of 18,000 individuals. The government has emphasized that voluntary departure will include financial incentives and reintegration support, such as professional training in destination countries. Those who fail to comply within the 20-day period will face “coercive return,” involving detention and forced removal.
The plan expands the concept of “destination countries” through bilateral agreements, allowing returns to third countries with which Portugal has cooperation, provided fundamental rights are respected. Forced returns will target non-cooperative individuals, those who flee to other EU states, or those deemed security risks. Procedural safeguards, including legal assistance, prior hearings, and protection for vulnerable groups like unaccompanied minors and families with children, are promised to ensure compliance with human rights standards.
National Unit for Foreigners and Borders
The government proposes creating a National Unit for Foreigners and Borders (UNEF) within the Public Security Police (PSP) to centralize and regulate the deportation process. This unit, operating under a “permanent availability regime,” aims to streamline returns and address the low deportation rates highlighted by Amaro. However, a previous legislative attempt to establish UNEF was defeated in September 2024 due to opposition from the Socialist Party and Chega, raising doubts about its implementation before the election.
Impact on Brazilian Immigrants
Brazilian Presence in Portugal
Brazilians form one of Portugal’s largest immigrant communities, with historical data showing they are among the top nationalities in residence permit applications. The shared language, cultural ties, and visa options like the D6 Family Reunification Visa and CPLP Mobility Agreement have made Portugal a preferred destination. However, many Brazilians face delays in visa processing, particularly in São Paulo, where consulates are overwhelmed. The lack of specific data on how many of the 18,000 targeted immigrants are Brazilian complicates assessments, but posts on X and media reports confirm that Brazilians are among those affected.
Implications for Brazilians
The notification process could disrupt the lives of undocumented Brazilians, many of whom may have entered Portugal under now-revoked policies, such as the “Manifestação de Interesse” (Expression of Interest), which allowed non-EU citizens to apply for residency without a pre-existing job contract. Those notified will face a stark choice: leave voluntarily with financial support or risk detention and deportation. The 20-day deadline may pose challenges for families, workers, and students, particularly those awaiting visa renewals or family reunification approvals.
Posts on X reflect public concern, with outlets like GloboNews and Metrópoles highlighting that Brazilians are among the targeted groups, potentially facing “coercive removal” if they do not comply. Commentators like Luiz Fernando Pondé and Leonardo Sakamoto have discussed the policy’s implications, noting its political motivations ahead of the election. The lack of clarity on the number of affected Brazilians has fueled uncertainty, with some X users warning of a broader crackdown on CPLP (Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries) migrants.
Reintegration Challenges
For Brazilians returning voluntarily, reintegration support promised by Portugal, such as professional training, may be limited by Brazil’s economic and social challenges. The absence of a formal stipend program, as seen in similar U.S. policies, raises questions about the feasibility of reintegration. Additionally, bilateral agreements could see some Brazilians returned to third countries, complicating their plans. The policy’s focus on “security risks” may disproportionately affect Brazilians with minor legal issues, despite assurances of procedural rights.
Broader Implications for Portugal’s Immigration System
Political and Electoral Impact
The deportation plan is a strategic move by the AD government to appeal to voters concerned about immigration, particularly as the far-right Chega party gains traction. Political analysts warn that the policy could deepen polarization, with the May 18 election serving as a referendum on immigration reform. If AD retains power, stricter visa requirements and reduced pathways for non-EU migrants are likely to continue. Conversely, a Socialist-led government may prioritize integration and resume family reunification processes.
The policy has drawn criticism from migrant advocates and NGOs, who argue that it risks stigmatizing immigrants and undermining Portugal’s humanist tradition, as articulated by Montenegro in 2024: “I see immigrants who seek out Portugal as new Portuguese people.” The emphasis on deportations contradicts earlier commitments to the EU Migration Pact and CPLP Mobility Agreement, potentially straining relations with Brazil and other Portuguese-speaking nations.
Administrative and Economic Considerations
The deportation plan’s success hinges on AIMA’s ability to process notifications efficiently, a challenge given its backlog. The proposed UNEF could alleviate pressure, but its creation remains uncertain. Economically, deporting 18,000 immigrants could impact sectors reliant on migrant labor, such as tourism and construction, which have benefited from Brazil’s workforce. The loss of tax contributions from undocumented workers, coupled with the cost of enforcement, may strain public finances.
Human Rights and Public Sentiment
The government’s commitment to human rights, including protections for vulnerable groups, will be scrutinized. Reports on X suggest mixed public sentiment, with some supporting stricter enforcement and others decrying the policy as inhumane, particularly for Brazilians with deep ties to Portugal. The far-right’s narrative linking immigration to crime, debunked by 2024 data showing declines in major crimes like burglary and homicide, could further polarize debates.
Conclusion
Portugal’s plan to notify 18,000 undocumented immigrants, including Brazilians, to leave voluntarily within 20 days marks a significant shift toward stricter immigration enforcement. Driven by political pressures and an upcoming election, the policy reflects the AD government’s attempt to address administrative backlogs and public concerns about illegal immigration. For Brazilians, the plan introduces uncertainty, with potential disruptions to families and workers awaiting visa approvals. While the government promises human rights safeguards and reintegration support, the policy’s implementation and long-term impact remain uncertain, particularly if the election alters Portugal’s political landscape. As Portugal navigates this contentious issue, its reputation as a welcoming destination for immigrants, especially from Brazil, hangs in the balance.